The Good Judgment
workshop

Start with a precise business question. A broad topic or a visible symptom is rarely enough to guide useful analysis.

• Distinguish the topic from the problem, and clarify the decision that needs to be made.
• Separate what you know from your interpretation of it and its possible implications.
• Use situation, complication and question to establish the context before proposing an answer (SCQA).
• Write a problem statement that gives the analysis a clear purpose and scope.

TakeawayA practical template for framing complex business problems

Build a line of inquiry that makes a complex situation manageable, without losing the connections that matter.

• Break the problem into logical components and check for gaps or overlaps: the useful idea behind MECE.
• Choose categories that help answer the question, rather than making an arbitrary list.
• Work from the overall question down when you can, or group observations from the bottom up when you need to.
• Build a simple issue tree: a map of the questions your analysis needs to answer.

TakeawayA framework for turning complexity into a clear line of inquiry

Use hypotheses to direct the work. The aim is to find the evidence that could change the decision, rather than analyse everything available.

• Form an initial hypothesis and ask what would have to be true for it to hold.
• Identify the questions with the greatest bearing on the decision.
• Apply 80/20 thinking to focus effort, while checking what a shortcut might miss.
• Specify evidence that would support the hypothesis or make you abandon it.
• Distinguish analysis that resolves uncertainty from detail that adds little to the decision.

TakeawayA hypothesis-driven problem-solving and prioritization plan

Move from a collection of facts to an answer a senior audience can use. Distinguish the information, the insight it supports, the implication and the recommendation.

• Lead with your answer, then group the supporting arguments: the core logic of the Pyramid Principle.
• Use three supporting points when that helps the argument, without forcing the evidence into a fixed pattern.
• Select the evidence your audience needs to assess the recommendation.
• Explain what the findings mean for the business instead of repeating the analysis.

TakeawayA concise executive synthesis format

Examine a polished recommendation, including AI-generated work, that looks convincing but contains weak assumptions, missing evidence or unsupported conclusions.

• Is it answering the right question, and is the structure sound?
• Which assumptions drive the conclusion? Does the evidence support the causal claims?
• What information is missing, and what should be verified?
• What would change my mind? Which parts can I accept, challenge or reject?
• Is there enough evidence to decide now, despite what remains uncertain?

TakeawayA checklist for reviewing recommendations and AI-generated work